On The Fringes

Die My Love

Lynne Ramsay nabbed two stalwarts of millennial cinema and put them through the marital ringer. Robert Pattinson and Jennifer Lawrence committed to the project and to the press run, but it would be hard to imagine either of them actually breaking into their stacked categories. Below the line, Seamus McGarvey made the shortlist for Best Cinematography, but it is probably an uphill battle there as well. Available to rent and is streaming on Mubi.

KPop Demon Hunters

Shockingly, the buzziest animated film of the year only netted one Original Song on the shortlist (the pop hit Golden), but nominations there and for Animated Feature should be all but a lock. You can catch HUNTR/X on Netflix.

Sirât

Spain’s official entry for Best International Film, Oliver Laxe’s desert rave search for a missing daughter should be a shoo-in for a nomination in that category and might have enough industry support from the Academy’s International voters to net a surprise appearance somewhere else. NEON has it scheduled for a limited theatrical release on February 6th.

Train Dreams

The poetic flow of life in the northwestern forest has a lot of fans (Hi) and has left some less impressed. Joel Edgerton’s Golden Globes nomination doesn’t hold much weight when compared to his lack of one at The Actors Awards, so he’s definitely a question mark compared to other contenders. Cinematographer Adolpho Veloso made the shortlist, so the film could see some support below the line if nothing else. Available on Netflix.

Sorry, Baby

Following quite the shoutout by Julia Roberts near the end of the Golden Globes telecast, Eva Victor’s directorial debut could see a surge. An acting nomination feels like a long-shot, but a slot in Best Original Screenplay is certainly in play, a category that in the past the Academy has loved to crown younger, cooler filmmakers. The WGA award nominations will give some more insight near the end of this month. It’s available to rent or stream on HBO Max.

The Linklater’s

Nouvelle vague

Probably unlikely to net anything, but the parallels between Richard Linklater and Jean-Luc Godard and the love of making movies could be enough to keep the door open. Available on Netflix.

Blue Moon

What at first seemed like no chance, now seems highly probable, which would be Ethan Hawke earning his first career nomination for Actor in a Leading Role. It could be a career achievement slot, especially after his snub from First Reformed, but it is also a performance that deserves the recognition. Available to rent.

Acting Noms but What Else?

The Testament of Ann Lee

The film itself stands on the shoulders of Amanda Seyfried, and Amanda Seyfried only. She’s had quite the run over the last 5 years and just landed a box office hit with The Housemaid. She could see herself earning a nomination with support by both the artists in the room and the suits as a thank you to their checkbooks, though the Best Actress field is crowded with worthy contenders. The bigger shame here is Daniel Blumberg’s omission in the Best Original Score category due to use of previously existing music. His work is nothing if not original. The film is currently available in theaters.

Jay Kelly

Noah Baumbach’s acid-tipped love letter to the fading idea of Movie Stardom didn’t hit like some of his past work, but he has a lot of peer appreciation, as well as a critically-acclaimed performance from Adam Sandler. The Sandman is contending for a Best Supporting Actor nomination, while the script by Baumbach & Emily Mortimer, along with George Clooney’s lead performance, will probably miss the cut. Available on Netflix.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Rose Byrne, following a deserved Golden Globe win (albeit in a fraudulent category), is staring down a nomination for Best Actress. If writer/director Mary Bronstein can drum up some support for her Original Screenplay, it could be a sign of larger support of the film overall, increasing Byrne’s odds of walking out of the Dolby Theater with a gold statue. Now available to rent.

All Sizzle. No Steak.

Wicked: For Good

The box office behemoth sucked up 10 nominations into its twister a year ago and there’s no reason to think the Academy would think much less of the sequel, particularly below the line. Cynthia Erivo seems to be on the outside, but Ariana Grande could slip in for the second time. Costumes, Make-Up and Hairstyling, Casting, Visual Effects, Production Design, Directing, Original Score, Original Song, and Best Picture are all certainly in play. Available to buy.

F1

Joseph Kosinski has become the guy to make big Captial-H Hollywood movies and there are a lot of below the line nominations probably heading their way down to the race track. Best Picture might not be as far off as once thought. Available to buy and streaming on Apple TV+.

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Big Jim’s third flight across Pandora doesn’t seem to have the juice of his previous two films, but you can’t count out just how ground-breaking the work that he and his team do really is, and many members of the Academy appreciate it. Available in theaters.

Frankenstein

After a pretty tepid response to its premiere at the Venice Film Festival and to many Netflix viewers at home, Guillermo del Toro’s life-long dream adaptation has managed to stay afloat throughout the fall and winter due to the sheer appreciation of GDT as an ambassador of the art form and for Jacob Elordi’s new-era take on “The Monster”. A classic critics-be-damned swell of support has the film feeling like an inevitable nominee for one of the 10 Best Picture slots, followed certainly by a slew of below-the-line nominations. Elordi picked up the Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actor, but it’s a tough call in a very crowded category. Available on Netflix.

The Wildcards

Bugonia

Cinema’s Greek Freak, Yorgos Lanthimos has fashioned himself as a surprising Academy darling since 2018’s The Favourite. Last year’s Kinds of Kindness failed to make traction (most likely due to its anthological structure), but with Bugonia as his 3rd film in as many years starring Emma Stone, you simply can’t count out the pull that this artistic pairing could have. On the other hand, voting members may be tired by the work and its unblinking look at modern existence. Any and all options are on the table for this one, including a nomination for Jesse Plemons. Available to rent and streaming on Peacock.

No Other Choice

Another international favorite, South Korean master Park Chan-wook’s latest black-comic thriller is hanging around the edges of multiple conversations. Probably fighting for 3rd in the Best International Feature race, and star Lee Byung-hun a distant player for Best Actor, but with a membership that grows with international representation by the year, there’s enough respect for Director Park that multiple nominations wouldn’t be a surprise. Available in theaters with a VOD release likely to come soon.

Weapons

One of the biggest box office winners, and a contender for the best in-theater experience of 2025, a Weapons run of nominations would be a sign of a younger, cooler base of Academy members breaking through against the crunchy old guard. The fact that Amy Madigan is all but a lock for a nomination in Best Supporting Actress might be proof already, but an Original Screenplay or, crazier, a Best Picture nomination would be almost as exciting as the film itself. Available to rent and streaming on HBO Max.

THE CONTENDERS

Sentimental Value

Joachim Trier’s follow-up to 2021 festival favorite The Worst Person in the World is his “biggest” on paper. Re-teaming with Renate Reinsve and bringing in Hollywood staples Elle Fanning and Stellan Skarsgård has settled his film-world drama right back in the conversation. Multiple acting nominations are in play for all three stars, plus Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas. Best International Feature is all but guaranteed and the growing industry sentiment toward Trier (backed by recent campaigning juggernauts, NEON) has Best Picture very in play. Available to rent.

It Was Just An Accident

The 2025 Palme d’Or winner out of Cannes, It Was Just An Accident has potentially gotten lost in an increasingly crowded and exciting field of great international filmmaking. The story inside the film, and the story of the filmmaking itself, is too much to write off though. Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi is one of the world’s most important artistic voices, particularly because of the way his own country works so hard to silence him. To face prison sentences, political surveillance, and continue to speak out against unethical societal structures, he is the true embodiment of using art to create empathy. Since 2019, all but one winner of the Palme have gotten Best Picture nominations, and I don’t envision the Academy missing out on an opportunity to make a statement here. Available to rent.

The Secret Agent

The late-breaking surge for this film by Brazil’s Kleber Mendonça Filho is one reason why a longer awards season has its benefits. Still, with two months til Oscars night, there is almost no doubt that the film and its star, Wagner Moura, will be in the running for more than one win, let alone nominations. Available in theaters.

marty supreme

With the year’s best marketing push now wrapped up, A24 is letting its star do the talking. By letting loose, embracing his character’s energy, and being the hottest star in America, Timothée Chalamet is taking what was considered a one-for-me role and flipping it into what could be his first win for Best Actor. The award doesn’t normally go to younger men the way it does for women, but the Academy could be looking to crown Chalamet as a beacon of the future. Best Picture, Original Screenplay, and below-the-line should all be heavily favored as well. Available in theaters.

sinners

The first great film of 2025 and the energy just never dissipated. Ryan Coogler’s enthralling genre hybrid got everyone off their asses and into movie theaters. Michael B. Jordan carries the film alongside one of the most beautiful and charismatic supporting casts you can find. To land on Oscars night with an expected haul of nominations 11 months after its wide release is a testament to how great films stay with its viewers. One of the most deserving works of art of the year, across the board. Available to rent and streaming on HBO Max.

hamnet

It’s hard not to love the wide acclaim director Chloé Zhao has earned, even if my own feelings on Hamnet aren’t very positive. One of three women in Academy Awards history to win Best Director, Zhao will certainly be seeing her name listed again when the nominations are announced, as will Jessie Buckley whose emotionally wrought performance has started to feel like an inevitable outcome. Author of the original text, Maggie O’Farrell, partnered with Zhao on the script and should be netting a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. Paul Mescal is pretty likely to collect a nomination in Supporting Actor, and if the film isn’t trending strong enough already, a Golden Globes victory speech by none other than Steven Spielberg all but solidified the film as a serious player. Available in theaters.

One Battle After Another

As things stand right now, it’s a two-horse race for Best Picture. If not Hamnet, then Paul Thomas Anderson’s pitch-perfect epic of modern American revolutionaries and the waves of life that wash against them seems to be where the tide is heading. Even though the precursors haven’t shown it, Leonardo DiCaprio is absolutely in the running to win his 2nd award for Best Actor. Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn are all positioned for Supporting nominations, and young star Chase Infiniti could signal an even bigger wave of support should she land on the Lead Actress list. Below-the-line you can expect nominations for Cinematography, Editing, and Original Score, with the potential for more. At age 55 and a career littered with nominations and artistic admirers, PTA is staring down his first victories in Best Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Best Picture. A rare case where the “It’s Their Time” Oscars narrative actually lines up with some of the artist’s most outstanding work. Viva La Revolución! Available to rent and streaming on HBO Max.